Patriots face their toughest challenge yet with the Steelers

I'll admit it: I'm a little worried about the Patriots facing the Steelers this week. In fact, I would go so far as to say I'm a little apprehensive.

The Patriots have taken on all comers this season and pulled out close games against Indianapolis, the Eagles and the Ravens, as well as blowouts against other teams. It seems no matter what their opponents try, the Patriots are at least just a scoch better. But the Steelers worry me for two reasons: history and defense.

First, these two teams have a history of breaking one another's streaks. It was the Steelers who broke the Patriots' winning streak back in 2005 (18 or 21 games in a row, depending on how you're counting). The Patriots returned the favor last year, breaking up the Steelers' 16-0 streak. The Steelers have reason, furthermore, to have an extra chip on their shoulders about the Patriots: were it not for the Patriots, the Steelers might well have had at least one more championship this decade (in 2001, when the upstart Pats upset them at home) if not two (the Patriots also beat the Steelers at home in the 2004 playoffs).

Meanwhile, it's clear the Patriots' opponents are chipping away at them, week by week. They've gone from 20- and 30-point win margins to wins by a field goal in recent weeks, especially when facing top defenses. And now here comes the best defense of them all.

The inimitable Cold, Hard Football Facts lays out the facts about Pittsburgh's D in this great feature article this week. In fact, according to the CHFF analysis, not only are the Steelers the best defensive team in the league, "The Steelers of 2007 are putting up defensive numbers equal or superior to all five of the franchise's Super Bowl champions, if you can believe it."

Meanwhile, my esteemed colleague laid out the weaknesses an injury-shortened defense for the Patriots has been showing. The Patriots have still won all their games, but they've also given up quite a few points, which has been made up for by the high-flying offense. But this is a game in which the Patriots' D needs to clamp down; there's just no way the Patriots' offense is going to have an easy time of it against the Steelers and I would be quite surprised if they ran up the kind of huge point total they had been earlier this season. In fact, I think as other teams start to find effective strategies against the Patriots, those days may be behind us this year for good.

If the Pats' D is playing business as usual, that could mean game over; Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense have been overlooked in favor of Brady and the Patriots as well as Peyton Manning and the Colts, but they are looking solid this year as well.

The Patriots have their best chance to lose the undefeated season this week, I think, than any other week. Worse, the Steelers, already with a chip on their shoulders, definitely know that.

I don't like to predict wins or scores (too superstitious). But I will predict that this game will make last week's rodeo against the Ravens look tame by comparison.

Comments

[this day in history]

[...] Patriots face their toughest challenge yet with the Steelers [...]

[martin b.]

...just who are these Steelers?...and what in blue hell happened against the Jets?...the Steelers offense is'nt as good as advertised and lags FAR behind the type of "consistent" offensive efficiency displayed by NE...they've lived on a schedule that has been easier for the past 13 weeks...but the next two games will define their season...if this game was any other place but Gillette, i might be concerned but i like NE to roll in this one...i guess the real question is the NE run defense [particularly the back seven]...they've looked frazzled the past few weeks...Baltimore hit on something that could prove to become a fatal weakness and the playoff contenders are all watching...

[Andrew Farrar]

I reckon Pittsburgh will put upwards of 30 points on the board, it's up to young Brady and his offence to score more than that.

I hope they do so. Young Belichick is my favourite American - sound fellow.

[Scott Kaltenbaugh]

It is pretty much stupid to say that just because a lousy team beats a good team, that the good team isn't really good. Teams have bad games. Allow me to demonstrate...

The Year....2006

Nov 12, 2006 - Jets 17 NE 14. Are last year's Jets that much different that this year's Jets? Only in record.

Dec 10, 2006 - Look at this, NE 0 Miami 21 Yup, the Mighty Pats put up 0 against the Fins.

The Year....2004, Super Bowl Year for the Pats

Oct 31, 2004 - NE 20 Pitt 34 - Yup, the Mighty Patriots got their asses handed to them by who else, the Steelers. Granted, the Pats gave them back again in the playoffs, but you get my point.

Dec 20, 2004 - Miami 29 NE 28 - Wow, Miami must be good!

I know, different years, different players, different teams....to a degree. My point is, if you really think that just because the Steelers lot to the Jets means that NE has a bye this week, you're dumber than you look. I doubt for one minute that the Pats are thinking like that. They know this is going to be a hard-fought game where they stand their best chance of losing this year.

[Tom]

The Steelers play a form of football that is old school, smash mouth, they can not be called a fancy team at all. But they sure love to hit and hit hard. The pats can look forward to a 15-1 Season this year as my Steelers hand them their first loss this year.

[Andrew Farrar]

Well, didn't look to be an awful lot wrong with the defence tonight. The difference between this week and last week was that the offence and young Brady stayed on the field much longer, especially in the second half.

I still say, as an ignorant Englishman (of the old variety), that the problem against Baltimore was more a stuttering offence than a problem with the defence.