Patriots Midseason Analysis Part 1: the Patriots don't make sense

As a Patriots fan, right now I feel like someone just walked up and handed me a twenty or two and I don't know what I did to deserve it, and I still wonder if maybe it's a trick.

I have a vague sense that the Patriots are winning with offense, and by that I mean Tom Brady, but then I think that's just because a) I cannot even pretend not to be a raging Brady fangirl and b) I usually figure there's some epically deep statistical analysis I haven't yet figured out that would be THE ANSWER about just how they got to be tied for the best record in the league, when there have been times they look like the worst 7-2 team ever. 

But then I read a fine piece of sports journalism by Robert Lee in the Providence Journal that crunched all the numbers, and made a compelling case for the conclusion that... there is no conclusion. The Patriots don't add up, or at least not in any one solid way. As I have by instinct as well as bias, Lee points to Brady as the key, by default.

Tom Brady’s brilliance is a big reason why the Patriots are 7-2 and have been able to overcome a lot of their mistakes and shortcomings. He’s completing 64.5 percent of his passes and has 17 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions. His 98.8 passer rating ranks fourth in the league.

I have to wonder if that overall passer rating isn't a bit like pitcher ERA, dragged down by the two absolute eggs he laid amid an otherwise inspired season. Those two stinkers came against a defense-focused, relentlessly blitzing Jets team coached by Rex Ryan with something to prove, and in Cleveland against Ryan's brother, Rob, former linebackers coach for the Patriots and now the Browns' defensive coordinator. In both those games, the opponenet successfully neutralized Brady, and for 60 solid minutes, not allowing him the opportunity for one of his patented comebacks. Those two games were the ones the Patriots lost.

It's not so much that there haven't been contributions from others -- obviously not. But Brady's leadership as well as his prodigious ability to read the field gives the Patriots offense an edge amid the bludgeoning parity and inherent attrition of this league, at least against the relatively mediocre stretch of opponents they've faced so far. That's why he's The Franchise.

But it's also like the fake football player said in that one beer commercial a few years ago: "Leon can't do everything."

If we can agree that Brady drives the offense, and that the offense is driving the team, for me it begs the question: what's up with the defense?

Comments

[Mark]

I think it's important to note that two of the QBs in front of Brady in passer rating (Vick and Garrard) don't have nearly as many attempts, Vick because of injury and Garrard because the Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew and ran a lot early in the year.

The quality of passing defenses matters, too. Garrard gets to pass against the weak secondaries of the Texans and Colts four times a year. Brady doesn't have that luxury. Here's a good stat that accounts for defenses played: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

That said, Brady hasn't always looked great this year, and has had to go through some adjustments mid-season with the loss of Moss. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain the same level he had against the Steelers, or if he was just super-fired up for that game because he always gets fired up for the Steelers.

[beth]

Football Outsiders are my personal football blogging heroes -- I was totally thinking of them when I was talking about the elusive stat I was sure was out there...wish I could hang w/ those guys.

Thanks for your comment Mark!

[Shamus]

I think the key to the Pats solid play on offense has been the offensive line. Throughout the Pats run with Belicheck and Brady, the offensive line has been one of the team's greatest strengths. Sure, it's had some bad stretches here and there (especially when Matt Light struggles), but as a unit they've played solid and benefited from excellent coaching for years. The Pats excel at drafting and coaching O-linemen.

Brady gets a lot of time in the pocket and this allows the receivers to get open against tough secondaries. The run-blocking has been quite excellent this year, allowing Benjarvus to put up some solid numbers.

As Logan Mankins gets up to speed in the second half, I think the O-line will only get stronger and allow this offense to sustain drives in critical games.

[Mark]

Good point, Shamus. I think the strength of the O-line in run blocking has allowed the play-action to be more effective, buying Brady even more time in the pocket. Sometimes it seems like he has all day back there.

[beth]

My offensive line coach father would be ashamed of me for not giving more explicit credit to them here. And I do love me some O-linemen, esp. Koppen, Light and Mankins.

This is just my gut talking again, but it feels like the O-line has been inconsistent over the course of the season, especially during the Mankins holdout. Maybe the two lost games were the times Brady's inconsistencies and the O-line's inconsistences met in a perfect storm? :)

They did hold up like champs against a SERIOUS Steelers defensive front, however. But Brady also seemed to have re-sharpened his accuracy and timing vs. the Steelers as well. Chicken and egg, a little of both?

Either way, let's hope they keep it up against the Colts.

[beth]

P.S. FWIW, in the first segment of Belichick's breakdown of the Steelers game from this past Weds., he's gushing about Tommy Boy. http://tinyurl.com/2dp5abr

I lurve that Belistrator stuff, btw, just wish it wasn't hosted by Zo, who was such a crass jackass about Ellsbury this summer that I've been trying to avoid anything he does...

[RJP]

UP FRONT, is where the game is played!!!! No O line no offense!!!!