Cursed To First - Sox and Pats forever.

Probing the mind of Belichick, cont'd

I wasn't disappointed by last night's PAA, whether it was the Belichick mic'd up stuff or all the other behind-the-scenes moments...

...like this shot of four out of the seven Patriots Pro Bowlers. A handsome bunch, eh? Now that Brett Keisel has announced he will be shearing his mighty face-mane for charity, Matt Light, especially, may be poised to take over the league's Most Viking-Like Appearance title. But, uh, Logan? We Need To Talk about that mustache...

Meanwhile, what I wouldn't give to have had THIS conversation mic'd up...

...and then there was The Big Man and the Sea - Vince Wilfork pondering the mysteries of life while deep-sea fishing off Honolulu.

But the main attraction, as previewed, was Belichick.

Matt Cassel, I Had Such Hopes for Us

originally uploaded by Jeffrey Beall, on Flickr.

No, really. As foolish as it looks now to have doubted the Ravens in KC, as soon as both your Chiefs and my Patriots got into the playoffs, somehow it felt like some crazy turn of events was going to lead to a matchup between us.

Or, more likely, I hoped some crazy turn of events would pit Patriots West, if you will, against the mother ship -- since about this time last year, as a matter of fact, when the Chiefs added Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis to the coaching roster.

Just think of all the new storylines there would have been to explore. A defense composed largely of a Bill Belichick-led draft class vs. a team recently re-architected by his former partner in crime, Scott Pioli, with an offense featuring you and good ol' Charlie. Romeo Crennel versus Tom Brady & Co.

It certainly would have been a more pleasantly novel prospect than what we're actually getting, which is, for you, the proverbial playing of golf, and for us, 2010's rubber match in a Pats-Jets rivalry that's going to have fans on both sides stocking up on antacids for the rest of the week.

No, Matt Cassel, as it turns out, our storybook reunion is not to be. And oh, what punishment there was for you today in the game which ensured that, punishment at the hands of the terrifying tandem of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis.

Suggs seemed to be the ringleader in the rush that left you for dead this afternoon, and would record two of the three bone-crunching sacks you took today. And at this point in both their careers, Suggs is equally if not even more fearsome than Lewis.

But it is Ray-Ray, seven years Suggs' elder, who is, at this point, an institution of badassery, and a player who fascinates me more than any other non-Patriot. He was hardly upstaged by Suggs today, handling your third sack of the day, plus a forced fumble on one of your teammates, generated by one of his signature, stomach-turningly audible hits.

And so, Matt Cassel, my most prominent memory of watching those two gigantic, scary men just about break you in half today was a moment that featured the inimitable Lewis.

If you recall, you were facing a third and 3 on the Baltimore 47 in the early part of the second quarter, When you first lined up for that play, it was the Ravens defense, rather than your offense, which was featuring an empty backfield. In particular, CBS cameras caught a shot of Lewis, panting and puffing just across the line from you like a bull in a chute, standing with his bloodthirsty eyes trained right on your face.

You proceeded to call a probably life-saving time-out. You also may have needed to change your pants.

All I can really say after seeing what they did to you out there today, Matt Cassel, is that from a Patriots perspective, it can only be a good thing that we will not be hosting Messrs. Suggs and Lewis in Foxboro next Sunday. Especially since it appears that Suggs has a rather unhealthy obsession with Tom Brady as it is, even when his team is not playing the Patriots. In fact, it would not surprise me to find out that Suggs is also in possession of a voodoo doll, which lately just happens to feature long, flowing locks of hair. 

Anyway, hope you have a good off-season. As for me, next week I'll be rooting for the Ravens defense to visit on Ben Roethlisberger what they laid down on you today, dear Matty Cassel. He definitely deserves it more.

And as for another episode of Patriots vs. Jets...ugh. I've got at least a little more time before I really have to reopen that whole noxious can of worms, I think.

Monday Morning Patriots: Tom Brady's still the best, and talk turns to playoffs

originally uploaded by Gezlarge, on Flickr

It wasn't just the ability to create turnovers that helped the Patriots steamroll to a near-shutout victory yesterday over the Buffalo Bills -- it was also the ability to avoid turnovers of their own, and to capitalize (mostly early on in the game) on the turnovers committed by their opponents.

Here, the headline for most of the beat writers has been Tom Brady, his three touchdown passes, and his record-setting 319 attempts without an interception, not to mention his 26 touchdown passes without an INT since Oct. 17. There will also be plenty of talk around the ol' broadcast studio desk this week about Brady as a league MVP candidate.

It should also be acknowledged that the Patriots offensive line played yesterday, to borrow a phrase from one of my favorite movies, like warrior-poets. Particularly the left side of the line, which featured unbelievable blocking by Logan Mankins, Matt Light, and especially Alge Crumpler, and it was that blocking which opened holes for Danny Woodhead and Benjarvus Green-Ellis on runs.

Brady protected the ball flawlessly and sealed off three series with touchdown passes, but it was the running game, particularly from the Law Firm, that once again served as the core engine for the Patriots offense. After another 100-yard game, Beni is on pace to become the first Patriot to rush for 1000+ yards in a season since 2004. And to come back to Brady again: calling the play-action effective yesterday would be a vast understatement.

(Woodhead didn't do quite as well in the blocking game as he would running the ball. At one point, Bills safety Jairus Byrd jumped clear OVER him to get at Brady -- a priceless image, though it might not have been so funny to me if the the play hadn't still worked out for the Patriots on the other side of the field.)

***

Looking at the bigger picture, there is the question of who, among the Patriots starters, will play, and for how long, next week vs. Miami, now that the Patriots have clinched top seed in the AFC. But I find that conversation stultifyingly boring.

Then there is the more interesting question of how the Patriots might fare in the playoffs, against teams with more discipline, where they probably won't be fortunate enough to capitalize on as many turnovers as they have vs. the Packers and Bills these last two weeks.

But I love how much this team is reminding me of the early days of the Bill Belichick era, particularly on defense. Pepper Johnson is still a defensive coach, and he's still throwing high-speed passes at the defensemen in practice. I have to think that this year's quality of coaching, which had even a special teams DB looking for an opportunity to recover a fumble on a kickoff in garbage time, had everything to do with a game like yesterday's. 

It will be particularly interesting if the Patriots wind up making a playoff appearance against the Kansas City Chiefs, who also kicked ass today under the leadership of a number of former Patriots staffers, including Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. Those with Patriots heritage out in Kansas City also include former backup QB Matt Cassel, who threw a career-long TD pass in today's victory as a starter for the Chiefs that was named the CBS Play of the Day.

But for right now, the weather outside is frightful, and most of New England is cozily snowed in (the team even stayed in Buffalo an extra day before flying back because of the storm), recovering from last week's rush of holiday activity. And thanks to what happened yesterday, we won't have to worry about playoff matchups, with the Chiefs or anyone else, until well into next month.

The Plot Thickens...

.

Last week, it was reported that Charlie Weis is now the Chiefs' offensive coordinator. Today, it has been reported that Romeo Crennel is now the Chiefs' defensive coordinator.

Kansas City is also the place where Scott Pioli, Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel ended up last year.

Meanwhile, we have Brady, Belichick...and a second round draft pick. (Yep, that's right. Only one. Not that I'm bitter.) If this were a game of monopoly, we'd have Boardwalk and Park Place with three hotels, and the Chiefs would have all the utilities, all the railroads, and Ventnor Avenue.

It's already getting to be a fascinating 2010 season.

The Day After No Tomorrow

It was a matter of minutes after the Patriots' defeat at the hands of the Ravens became official, and hours after their defeat became a virtual certainty, that Bill Belichick may have had his moment of greatest candor before the press corps this year.

Belichick, looking almost wild-eyed in the camera lights, had conducted the conference to that point with his usual acerbic reticence, offering hostile non-answers to each new phrasing of the same question doggedly flung in his direction by the reporters in attendance. Then, he was asked a question that finally seemed to give him pause.

The question was whether the defeat he'd just presided over as coach of the team shocked him.

"...No." Belichick finally said, heavily. 

In truth, the only thing that was shocking about yesterday's game was the first four minutes--that it happened so quickly. It's also true that most people expected the Patriots, undefeated at Gillette Stadium this year and in the playoffs since 1978, to at least advance to the next round. And it was, I'll admit, especially disorienting to see Tom Brady struggle so mightily on a stage where he's done nothing but shine.

But does it shock me to see the Patriots offense struggle to find consistency and the defense victimized, particularly the secondary? Does it shock me to watch their runningbacks stuffed, their wide receivers bewildered, their defensive linemen blown off the ball? Does it shock me that this team folded under the playoff spotlight?

No.

There were sea changes this offseason, including the departures of veteran players like Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour, the defections of Scott Pioli, Matt Cassel and Josh McDaniels, and with those departures, the turnover of a huge amount of staff within the organization. Back in June, I wrote:

I'm starting to wonder about The Hooded One in the wake of the sheer number of coaching defections the Patriots have seen this season. None seem to be a contentious Mangini-type situation, but it could just be that Belichick either learned from that situation and / or is better at keeping family feuds under wraps these days. Or it could be that Belichick is truly unperturbed by the staff turnover. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be.

A huge chunk of the Patriots' player scouting staff has left the team since the curtain fell last season, most significantly Scott Pioli, but also including, according to Mike Reiss, Jay Muraco (college scouting coordinator), Jim Nagy (area scout) and Marvin Allen (area scout), and just this Monday, area scout Adam Peters. Even more worryingly, they have also hired a high school head coach to replace one of the earlier defectors who says the job "wasn't even in my thought process".

It seemed worrisome, but I was prepared to Keep the Faith.

Then, as the season progressed, it was clear there was something wrong. I was prepared to move quickly past the week 2 loss to the Jets, reasoning that this team wasn't going to go undefeated or 14-2 every season. It was in the loss against Denver that I started to grow concerned.

It pains me to say it, but it's true: this week our Golden Boy gets the Golden Sombrero. If any one player's performance should be looked to as the reason for losing this game, it's Brady's. Yes, you can argue Gostkoswki, who missed what turned out to be a crucial field goal, but really, it was Brady who was most inconsistent today, and Brady who left the scoring to Gostkowski in that crucial spot rather than converting for a touchdown.

You have to wonder just what the problem is. He has now lost to Denver at home, away, against different opposing coaches, playing under different offensive coordinators, with high amounts of personnel turnover on both teams since he first began his career. It seems like a silly question, but could it be the altitude? Is it psychological--is that night of Champ Bailey horror still stuck in his head, too?

Just what is Brady's issue with the Broncos?

Or is it a Brady issue, particular to this season, that goes deeper than that? He looked to be showing some of his old magic in Week 1 against Buffalo, but in the other games this season he and the rest of the offense have frequently been frustrating to watch.

When is it time to worry?

Again, I reasoned, Belichick and Brady have lost to the Broncos more than any other team, especially on the road. It was easily forgotten for a while as the Patriots trounced the hapless Titans and Buccaneers. But even then, following the victory across the pond, came that nagging little germ of doubt, nourished by the inactivity of a bye week.

Here's the strange land of uncertainty in which Patriots fans find themselves, heading into the bye week at 5-2. How much of the last two weeks of dominance should truly be encouraging? And how much should be chalked up to facing consecutive 0-fer teams?

Prior to that, the Patriots beat the Bills (3-4), the Falcons (4-2) and Ravens (3-3). They've faced one team that's remained undefeated through Week 7 -- the Broncos, who had a bye this week. I think we know what happened then.

Then the Colts game happened. There are always a million factors in any game, but the one that got the most attention was a coaching decision to go for it on fourth and two deep in the Patriots' own territory. In the ensuing debate two conclusions emerged, one that Belichick and / or his offensive coaching staff were the problem, the other being that the defense was the problem and the play call was a response to that problem.

Either way, it wasn't good.

Still, it wasn't terrible. There were bright spots like Brady as he continued to gain strength through the season, even winning the Comeback Player of the Year award, and good games for individual players here and there like Leigh Bodden with his three interceptions against the Jets in their second meeting with the Patriots this season. They dominated at home, winning every game they played there.

And, of course, there was Wes Welker.

For some reason, though he set team records last year and the year before, though he now stands as only the eighth player in the history of the NFL to have back-to-back 100-reception seasons (per Sports of Boston, which has an excellent writeup of Welker's college and previous NFL accomplishments), Wes Welker has flown under the radar the way he sneaks in routes under safeties on the field. Randy Moss, the classic, willowy, fast-sprinting wideout, has set records of his own and garnered more of the attention, even among Patriots fans.

I think this game against the Jets has changed that once and for all. During some talk-radio listening yesterday, I heard the Sports Hub hosting a discussion about whether listeners consider Welker or Moss the Patriots' No.1 receiver, or at least which was their personal favorite.

That was fun while it lasted, but then the Patriots headed to New Orleans, where we saw just how ugly they could look this season. And then came the Miami game, with that devastating hit to Brady's ribs and an even more devastating, sloppy loss.

It was after these two games that the problems began to seem not only glaring, but systemic.

That's the thing: it's not just one thing. Our defensive backs put in another weak effort today; but Tom Brady also threw an interception in the end zone.

Once again the offense failed to convert a fourth down that might've put the game away, but the Patriots' nonexistent pass rush didn't do much to even things up on the other side of the ball.

The offensive line failed in some spectacular and crucial ways today, including a bilateral snafu that saw Brady pounded so hard in the ribs by two onrushing defenders at the same time that he had to leave for a pad adjustment between series.

But the whole team seemed to have disappeared by the end of the game, to the point where my father was wondering aloud about the Patriots' team conditioning this year.

Then, a win, finally, against the Panthers, another weak opponent, at least as compared with the Saints and Colts. Even then, it was a mixed bag, sullied by the thundercloud over Randy Moss's head. Again, the problem did not seem to be a purely technical, X's and O's kind of problem. The problem was beginning to feel like an overall atmosphere around this team, an attitude, a culture that looked sickly compared to the brilliant, efficient Patriots of the early decade.

Moss would redeem himself the next week against Buffalo, and the Patriots would record their first road win since playing Tampa in London at mid-season. Then came another high point -- a convincing 35-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and the clinching of the AFC East. Just one more road game in Houston before we'd see which team would stand up when called on in the playoffs. On the one hand, the optimism brought on by hats and T-shirts felt hollow. On the other hand, it was hard to look a gift horse in the mouth.

And that's when Wes Welker, the heart and soul of the offense, the sparkplug who rallied the Gillette Stadium crowd when they played the Panthers, went down with a devastating knee injury in Houston.

With that, I think fans sensed that the remaining spark of hope that made any talk of playoff ambitions rational had just gone out. Here again, it wasn't just about X's and O's -- Welker was a bright spot not just between the lines but on the sidelines and in the locker room. Welker was the guy who got everyone, fans and teammates alike, pumped up.

Like I said, I certainly didn't expect the Patriots to be steamrolled quite as badly as they were in that first quarter yesterday. But was I shocked?

No.

In the wake of yesterday's game, the discussion has focused on those factors -- not so much the X's and O's but the overarching themes of the team this year and the organization itself. In a way, I think the Patriots dynasty has become the victim of a kind of pernicious dry rot from within, the kind that would leave a tree standing whole on the outside, but hollow. On the surface, Belichick still stalks the sidelines in his gray hoodie; Brady is still under center in silver and blue. But if you look around at the rest, you see a lot of young players, a lot of coaches whose names you rarely hear invoked except in anger on talk radio, and a noticeably absent Scott Pioli.

Tom Brady had a further assessment in his media appearances postgame, most notably his weekly appearance on WEEI this morning.

According to the Boston Globe:

Tom Brady acknowledged that, indeed, there was a leadership problem in the Patriots' locker room. And he was fine with the assessment that losing guys like Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Larry Izzo and Mike Vrabel was one heck of a contributing factor.

"We've all thought about that," Brady said. "Those are special players and special guys, and it's not the uniform that makes players play the Patriot Way."

Brady continued, saying, "Other guys have to step in and fill those shoes, and other guys here who were here with those guys have to take those lessons they learned from those guys and apply them. ... Obviously, the leadership on this team wasn't where it needed to be."

So where did that show up? Brady was pretty clear in his assessment. "The games, that's when it's easy," which implies the problem came in the team's preparation.

Another clue that may have been what he meant? Several very pointed mentions of practice and preparation in his postgame press conference last night.

There used to be a kind of religion about the way Patriots players operated. They'd drunk the Kool-Aid. They were on board with the organization, and it was clear from their results on the field that the organization had been assembled from perhaps a perfect storm of evaluative and coaching talent. That atmosphere was almost totally absent from the Patriots this year, never more so than yesterday between 1 and 4 pm.

So maybe the zeitgeist has passed us by. Maybe the salad days really are over. I suspect it's something a little less dramatic -- and therefore maybe less satisfying in a way -- than that. I think we are witnessing an empire in decline, but it's not gone yet. Even with all their problems, the Patriots won 10 games this year and made the playoffs. All we can realistically ask is that they be competitive, and for all their bumps along the way, they were, at least until the very end.

Thank you, Matt Cassel

The first thing is to be grateful to Matt Cassel. For his hard work, not just over the past year, but over the three years that preceded it. That's the harder work--you're the backup to a legend, you don't foresee ever having to put the knowledge into action--and you pay attention anyway. You absorb and learn. That's a voluntary act that Cassel went through, not knowing if it would ever come to fruition. We should have a huge appreciation for that.

And we should also appreciate what he did on the field. He had a great coaching staff and the principal QB to advise him from the sidelines, but he was the only one who could go out and actually stare into the eyes of the defensive line on the other side. At a certain juncture, it was just Cassel vs. the expectations and the other team, in a situation where nobody necessarily expected him to do much. And he performed beautifully.

Clearly, he's an asset to any team who employs him. If we didn't already have an MVP at quarterback, we'd undoubtedly consider him our franchise QB going forward. 

So. Our team and its scouting and coaching staff have produced two relatively unknown quarterbacks who sat on the sidelines and then responded with aplomb when the lights were brightest. Is this lightning striking twice? Or should we expect the same from the next Cassel, whoever he is?

What we know is that our team has a lot of needs right now, and one of them is not at quarterback (ostensibly). Meanwhile, Mike Reiss has made some interesting arguments in favor of the trade that sent two mainstays of the 2008 Patriots to the Kansas City Chiefs (where Scott Pioli is currently employed) for a single second round draft pick. He says the team got the best value for Cassel given the state of the market and Cassel's franchise-tag salary.

Many fans, though, aren't buying it. Comments on Reiss's posts have veered into the hostile. In a poll on the site, 29.1% voted "This trade is terrible. There was no way KC could have gotten someone as good as Cassel with the 34th overall pick. And to lose Vrabel too? I am livid ... the Pats made a huge mistake."

But, interestingly, that's not the top vote. It runs second to the top finisher, with 34.1%, "Like the deal or not, the bottom line is this trade frees up cap space to make whatever moves they want. I'm expecting something big from the Pats in the coming days."

Right now, it's an unfinished story. The glass is either half empty, or half full.

Patriots deliver another total team loss

30-10, San Diego...and it really wasn't even that close.

As a Pats fan, I'll take my lumps. I'm not going to bash a team that's given me three Super Bowls, four AFC Championships, two record regular-season consecutive-win streaks, and a perfect regular season for having a tough year.

But at the same time, I'll call a spade a spade.

Cassel's inexperience showed tonight, especially as he failed to find the end zone again when it counted with the goal line stand in the third quarter. It was disconcerting to see the lost look in his eyes after his abortive fourth-down scramble.

But even more disconcerting was seeing Dan Koppen lifted bodily off the line of scrimmage on the previous down, and flung into Sammy Morris by San Diego nose tackle Jamal Williams. Koppen was also manhandled by Williams on Cassel's next run, and Morris ran around confusedly instead of blocking effectively for the QB.

Most disconcerting of all? Defensive backs. From Phillip Rivers' first pass finding Malcolm Floyd for 49 yards to the end zone to Ellis Hobbs' devastating pass-interference penalty on the series following the goal line stand, our defensive backfield was carved up by the Chargers today.

The Patriots were outplayed in just about every dimension of the game, and while I still believe Cassel can improve, the O-line* and DBs seem to be a much thornier and more multifaceted issue (though I don't need to see any more to know I could do without Deltha O'Neal). Let's not forget this O-line was blown off the ball and this defensive secondary victimized at the end of last season, too, with Brady at the helm.

Last week, against a relatively weak 9ers squad, the Pats looked well-organized if not flashy. It's best not to get too high or too low on the team in a season like this, especially over a single game. But tonight they looked like they might no longer be able to hang with the high flyers of the league.

*From the "also not helping" department: a serious-looking ankle injury to Nick Kaczur.

Running game leads Pats over 49ers

News flash: Matt Cassel is an inexperienced quarterback.

News flash: Bill Belichick is a smart coach.

News flash: The Patriots are capable of improving from week to week, and learning from their mistakes.

Today the Patriots adjusted not only to the mistakes they made last time out against Miami, but also to some miscues that had them trailing San Francisco early in this game.

Randy Moss has been making noise about wanting "touchdowns, not field goals," oh, and also the ball. Cassel went to Moss a couple times early on - once with a long bomb for a beautiful touchdown in the first half. But the next time he tried to go the long-bomb-to-Moss route, he got an interception for his troubles. He's not an experienced enough driver to take that particular high-octane vehicle out for a spin at will like Brady used to; that's just a fact.

By the end of the second quarter, though, the Patriots switched Cassel to a steady diet of short passes to Welker and Moss and gained traction with a balanced running game that saw contributions from Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan, the latter before he went down with an injury in the second quarter.

The Patriots actually gained 233 of their 377 total net yards today on passes from Cassel, but two of the three touchdowns New England scored were rushing touchdowns. Factor in three field goals and that 111 of the total passing yards were gained by receivers--and you have a nice balance between Cassel showing improvement, and his veteran teammates and coaching staff also shouldering much of the load.

The game against Miami showed some defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the running game, that were troubling. Give them two weeks, though, and the Patriots were not only holding San Francisco to a pathetic 3 first downs rushing, but the Patriots pass defense also showed an ability to stiffen up, holding the 9ers to an 11% third down conversion rate. Rodney Harrison in particular seemed to have shifted up a gear for this game, with a big interception in the third quarter.

It was also Harrison that delivered the final defensive coup de grace for San Francisco's QB, JT O'Sullivan, in the fourth quarter, first with a tipped pass that Deltha O'Neal caught for the third San Fran turnover of the game, and then by flying in out of nowhere to elbow the ball out of Arnaz Battle's arm in the waning seconds.

On the offensive side, the line also showed marked improvement over the previous ordeal against Miami. Matt Light was clutch, pancaking linebackers and opening holes for the backs. Most of the successful Patriots runs were off the left side today--including Kevin Faulk's touchdowns. They even took a page directly from Miami's playbook in week 3 for the second of those TDs, with a direct snap to Faulk on the 2-yard line.

Both the Patriots and 49ers entered this game in second place in their respective divisions, and both started inexperienced quarterbacks. But by the end of the game, only one of those QBs was looking rattled, while the other was holding his own, surrounded by veteran teammates.

Cassel's still wet behind the ears, and he's going to make mistakes. Gone are the days this team could be wholly focused on what to "take away" from opponents, and instead its vulnerabilities do sometimes take weapons away from them, like the long passing game today. But the all-or-nothing idea that this is a "lost season" for the Patriots without Brady is looking more foolish by the minute.

Patriots Squished by the Fish

When I argued that this is not a lost season for the Patriots shortly after Tom Brady went down, the relative ease of their schedule this year, especially early on, was something I took into account. Miami at home has been all but a lock over the last few years; while I knew it wouldn't be a cakewalk, I wasn't expecting this.

Neither, it seemed, were many of my fellow Patriots fans, who flooded talk radio yesterday afternoon with their views on exactly who lost the game. To my consternation, and that of the radio hosts I was listening to, there was a vocal faction wanting to ship out Matt Cassel and give Kevin O'Connell a shot under center.

Call me a quarterback apologist, but I didn't see this loss as Cassel's fault. At least, not totally.It's true he faltered in the red zone, as he had against the Jets (luckily 1,000 field goals were enough to beat them). The Tuna's defense kept him shuffling between the 20s all day, not something that would've happened to Brady.

However, Cassel also doesn't seem to be getting much protection. You could argue that Brady just made it look like he had more time because of his calm style, or hid a multitude of blocking sins with his mobility in the pocket, but there were times yesterday Cassel didn't even have a second to set his feet. Then there was Randy Moss, shutting it down in the third quarter and showing shades of his old self.

And to lay it all on the backup QB would amount to a grossly unfair overlooking of the defense yesterday, which played as if opposing runningbacks were invisible.  There's plenty of blame to go around - one analysis I've seen attributes the effectiveness of the Dolphins' running game to deception from a spread formation, hardly the kind of thing it seems the Patriots should fall for  - which suggests that this team has deeper problems than its Hall of Fame quarterback's left knee. That in itself is an unsettling thought.

Although, maybe I should have been expecting this. After all, the Dolphins were the last team to beat the Patriots in the regular season, and that time was even more of an upset - and even more of a crushing loss. That time was with Brady at the helm, the Patriots didn't even get on the board, and every member of the Dolphins was outfitted in traffic-cone-orange shoes. It was a game Kristen and I came to refer to with the statement, "What Miami game?" because the Patriots were headed for the playoffs anyway, and there were bigger fish to fry, and so it seemed the best course of action was to forget the game ever happened. In fact, this is probably the first time I've acknowledged its existence since.

Old-school Pats fans like my Dad have more animosity toward the Dolphins than I do, recalling the days when the Dolphins were dominant and the Pats were so bad not all of their games were even televised locally. So it was an especially bitter thing to some to have this latest regular-season winning streak bookended by losses to Miami. And wouldn't you know it'd be the Tuna cackling on the other side of the ball when it was time for another streak to end.

All of that said, it's pretty tough even for a Pats homer like myself to feel too terribly about this. I'm supposed to be grieving the first lost regular-season game in two years? The week after the team tied its own consecutive-regular-season-win record? Please. I'm spoiled, but I'm not that spoiled.

Even if I was, we've lost both a heartbreaking Super Bowl and our star quarterback in the last 8 months. This game was a sucker punch, but it pales in comparison.

Bradyless Pats overcome Favre and the Jets

Here was my impression of how this game would go, written for the NYT's Fifth Down football blog:

This game carries with it a big and obvious question: What will be the true impact of Tom Brady’s absence on the Jets / Pats rivalry? With Brady out, those who see the Patriots’ 2008 season as lost are naming the Jets as the team to beat in the A.F.C. East. But are things really so simple? It’s not as if the Patriots will be playing without a quarterback — and while Brett Favre is a great addition to Gang Green, he is not necessarily the Brett Favre of old. I think this game will be closer and harder-fought than many people are anticipating, and that the teams remain well-matched. Brady being out of the equation sets up even more of a dogfight between Boston and New York this season than in previous years, but it’s not an automatic coronation for the Jets. … Jets, 17-14 (in the final minutes).

Yep, you saw that right - I picked the Jets to win. Specifically, what I pictured was almost exactly how this game looked by the fourth quarter, a mix of field goals and TDs, and the Patriots on top by less than a touchdown. (I pictured them with 14 points to the Jets' 10 -- instead, with 10 minutes to go in the third quarter, it was Patriots 16, Jets 10.

Here is where - I guess because Brady's injury had me in that Murphy's-Law frame of mind - I pictured the Jets and Favre mounting a comeback, a dramatic win in front of their home fans, and another week of hearing people gloat about what happened to Brady and hate on Belichick. In retrospect, I'm still not sure if I was really expecting it, or just trying to gear myself up for it as the worst-case scenario.

And it's not like I don't miss Brady, won't miss him dearly until the moment he steps back onto the field in a Patriots uniform. But as it turned out, the way Brady's absence was felt in this particular game was more subtle than I think a lot of us -- myself included-- were anticipating. Maybe because we needed reminding that there are plenty of things Tom Brady doesn't do.

Tom Brady doesn't play special teams.  The Jets started most of their drives at their own 20. The Patriots started five drives in Jets territory.

Tom Brady does not run the ball. The running game helped keep the Jets offense off the field after that 16-10 score that felt so ominous to me, and the only Pats touchdown of the game was scored by Sammy Morris, who crowd-surfed over the Jets' defensive front on a third-and-goal play. Kevin Faulk made key plays, including a salvage of a tipped pass from Cassel for nine yards at the beginning of the second quarter, and motored for 22 yards on a screen pass in the third. Arguably, Brady would've converted more Red Zone plays into touchdowns, but...

Tom Brady does not play defense. Big-time credit is due to the Patriots defense, and, yes, to the defensive mind of Bill Belichick - as it is on the other side of the ball in Eric Mangini (their opposition has the potential to be far more fascinating on the field than in their soap opera off of it). Both teams stuffed one another in the red zone throughout the first half, and Adalius Thomas and Richard Seymour were like twin blocks of granite in the running game and long-armed nightmares for Favre when he dropped back. They let Favre make his own bed, sometimes, like when Brandon Meriweather delivered one of Favre's trademark interceptions in the third quarter. Other times they just swelled up, buckled down, and made the Jets pay for their mistakes. My prediction underestimated this defense, and for that I apologize.

Tom Brady does not block. Dan Koppen won a formidable battle with Jets DT Sione Puha as Cassel dropped back with about eight minutes to go in the third quarter, freeing Cassel to find Welker at the Jets 5, and setting up the Patriots' touchdown.

Tom Brady does not kick for field goals. Stephen Gostkowski scored most of the Pats' points today - and Cassel did well enough to put him in position. Instead of a Jets comeback in the fourth quarter, what we got was another Cassel drive and another Gostkowski 3-pointer for insurance.

Tom Brady did not make the Jets commit a million penalties. The Jets: 6 penalties, 60 yards, and they always seemed to come at some crucial time. The Pats: 2 penalties for 10 yards.

Of course, there's also another edge to this for the Patriots -

Tom Brady does not play DB. The Jets figured Rodney Harrison wouldn't match up well against Chansi Stuckey as they drove for the goal line at the beginning of the fourth quarter. They were right - Harrison fell down in front of Stuckey in the corner of the end zone, and the Jets scored easily. Meriweather obviously showed improvement over last week, and Ellis Hobbs had a few good plays (which he made sure to showboat about...sigh...), but Favre sometimes looked like the old gunslinger against this secondary.

Tom Brady does not play offensive line. Koppen's nice play to set up the touchdown notwithstanding, there were still times I loudly demanded of my TV  whether or not the real issue with this team was the QB or his lack of protection, especially when Matt Cassel got sacked on three consecutive drop-backs between the second and third quarters. I'm still worried about how he got up limping after one of the hits in the second quarter (He was probably shot up with something to get him back out on the field for the third quarter, and who knows what the implications might be for next week).

But the point is, these would be points of concern with or without Brady.

And so after a week of reports of the Patriots' demise, we were all reminded, I hope, that there are 52 other players on this team whether or not No. 12 is under center - and one of the all-time winningest coaches wearing a headset on the sideline. People were quick to point out this week that Belichick's under .500 without Brady - but most of that record comes from his tenure with the Cleveland Browns, almost a decade ago. He also is still the last person to lead that franchise to a postseason win, in 1994.

If anything, this game reminded me of the Patriots' style of play at the beginning of their Super Bowl run - back when they were impressive not for blowing teams out but for finding a different way to win each week. Back when Brady was "overrated", and "it was the system" that made him successful.

This game was 2001-style Patriots football, right down to the place kicker arguably being the MVP. If it was to provide us with any clue as to what the team would be like without Brady, it would seem that clue is to be found in how New England played before Brady was Brady - which was not all that long ago.

This is not to say we can declare any kind of victory after two weeks, any more than we could declare total defeat after one. In a way it has its own kind of excitement, this mutual uncertainty between the Pats and their AFC East rivals, which I don't think will really shake out until mid-season or later.

As a Pats fan, the games are taking on a different meaning. It's not that they didn't matter before, but this season a lot is at stake for the Patriots as they try to move on from 18-1 and SpyGate without the help of Brady.  For tonight, I'm just trying to enjoy being newly hopeful after an unexpected win.