Cursed To First - Sox and Pats forever.

An Exercise in Futility: the 2011 NFL Draft

It may not really be funny, or fair, but a part of me still just has to laugh.

For one thing, in the midst of this whole upside-down NFL off-season, Bill Belichick's blowing of mock-draft minds everywhere fit perfectly with the general chaos and overall ridiculousness of even having a draft when the rookies can't report to their assigned teams' facilities due to a labor lockout.

Another way in which I chuckle about this draft is in recognition. I've been among those tasked with putting together draft boards and making educated guesses writing for other sites in previous years, flying by the seat of my pants and trying to guess what the ultmate unpredictable mind in football was going to think of next. Every time I tried to identify positions of need and likely picks for the Patriots in the draft, the results were, in the end, hardly worth the pixels required to display them, or the electricity and light signals required to bring them to their audience.

The Patriots work to make it so that others in the league with them, so that beat writers with inside sources, are thrown off the trail of what they're really doing. And none of us, not the pros or any of us out in TV Land, really has a chance. Not with this head coach. So, for me it was amusing, more than a little reassuring, and even a bit comfortingly familiar, to see all that borne out again this year.

As for the picks themselves, well...

How they got here: Top 10 Patriots Moments in 2010, Part 1

 

There were many moments, whether off-the-field roster moves, whole games, or single plays on the field, which factored into the Patriots' return to the playoffs in 2011. Before this weekend's faceoff against the hated J-E-T-S, I think it's worth a look back* at what I consider the ten most notable milestones for the Patriots on the road to being this season's top seed in the AFC.

A Taste of Adrenaline

I can think of worse things than an exciting Patriots win (even if it's only preseason) to cheer me up after the Red Sox a) played while I was at work again and b) lost in crotch-kicking fashion to boot.

I'm familiar with the relevant facts about the game the Sox dropped yesterday to finish out their series with the Blue Jays, who apparently had a getaway to make to California and so that's why they played the working world was still on lunch hour. And as I'd feared when I put the words "road" "win" and "streak" together in the same sentence, despite taking a three-run lead into the ninth inning, they wound up snatching a won series from the jaws of a sweep.

Dammit.

I know my erstwhile binky, Jonathan Papelbon, continues this year's slide from "lights out" to "occasionally unreliable" and blew that save yesterday. There is absolutely no excuse for that, but I missed it and sure as hell didn't seek out the "highlights", so I'm just trying to focus on the fact that they won the series and move on.

Luckily, last night, Julian Edelman was there to help.

I'm sure he didn't actually catch every pass Patriots quarterbacks threw last night, but that's what it seemed like. And he continued to earn my father's nickname of "Wes Jr." with his yards after catch, cutting and bumping and slipping through defenders' hands.

The Patriots won by the slimmest of margins: 27-24 as the final seconds ticked down. Getting excited about this would be something like making pennant predictions after the first week of Spring Training, but on its own, just as a contest, this was an exciting spectacle.

Both of Brady's backups, Brian Hoyer and Patriots' 2010 seventh-round draft pick Zac Robinson, acquitted themselves very well -- 2009 undrafted free agent Hoyer was the only Pats QB to crack 100 yards passing on the night, and it was Robinson who drove the third-string offense downfield at the end of the game to set up the game-winning field goal. Losing Tom Brady again would be an utter nightmare, but it's good to know there's at least some depth at the QB position in case the unthinkable happens.

Ditto Edelman, who remains second-fiddle to Welker, but shows he also has a serviceable backup as the team's chief slot receiver. At least as a test of the Patriots' depth  (on offense, anyway -- *shakes fist at Darius Butler*), this taste of adrenaline was an exciting start to the most wonderful time of the year, when baseball's still in season, the Patriots are starting up and a New England autumn is just around the corner. Oh, and it's Friday. What's not to like?

P.S. This has been making the rounds, but if you haven't seen the Adrian Beltre Facts, get on it, yo. (Personal favorites: "Adrian Beltre once collided with himself. It was before Game 3 of the 1989 World Series." and "Adrian Beltre pulled a ball to the opposite field.")

Also, this. (HT Evan Brunell)

One player missing from Patriots draft

Despite a crop of 12 new players selected by the Patriots during the 2009 NFL draft, the talk among Patriots fans so far has centered around the one player they didn't pick up - an outside linebacker to replace Mike Vrabel.

Following Vrabel's departure in exchange for a second round pick, trade talk involving the Carolina Panthers' veteran Julius Peppers flourished, and then fizzled. Without a move made on Peppers, fans expected the Patriots to use their first round pick or the second round pick acquired for Vrabel and former quarterback Matt Cassell to restock at this position.

What happened was that the Patriots not only didn't pick a linebacker in the first round - they didn't pick anyone there, instead trading their pick to Baltimore for more lower-round picks.

There were still players available in the second round that seemed like they might've fit in to the Patriots defense, including my own personal pipe dream, Ohio State alum James Laurinaitis. The Patriots chose three defensive players in the second round...but no linebackers. Finally, in the later rounds, the Patriots picked up South Florida's Tyrone McKenzie, who had played OLB, but he probably won't play inside in the NFL. Even if he does, as a late-round rookie, he's unlikely to make the kind of impact a higher-ranked player like Laurinaitis or a veteran like Peppers would.

Even if the Patriots had wanted versatility in a defensive player at OLB, there were also defensive end / OLB hybrids there for the taking in this draft. And still the Patriots passed.

With such an obvious hole to fill, and with free agency as well as the draft having passed without major moves, heads are being scratched from Martha's Vineyard to the northernmost reaches of Maine.

The question I find most intriguing that's being asked in all this is whether or not the Patriots might be moving away from the 3-4 defensive scheme. To do this, the Patriots would have to totally reconfigure their defensive line, where stout, aggressive talent is crucial in the two-gap version of the 3-4 the Patriots usually run.

When you think 'stout, aggressive talent' and 'defensive line' with the Patriots, who do you think of? Why, none other than the Patriots' two biggest contract question marks, Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork. And oh, by the way, another standout Patriots defensive lineman, Jarvis Green, is also up for contract renegotiation after this season.

Meanwhile, though no linebackers or DEs were selected in this year's draft, the Patriots took two nose tackles, BC's Ron Brace and Kentucky's Myron Pryor.

Given we have so little evidence to go on so far, a wide variety of scenarios are possible; the most plausible seems to be that two college NTs might not wind up NTs in the NFL, but instead could be insurance for Wilfork and Green. This draft could have been Belichick's way of signaling that he's willing to play hardball with his veterans on the defensive line and nothing more.

But another possibility is currently being debated in football circles: that these moves signal a move away from the 3-4 defense in favor of a 4-3 scheme.

This seems unlikely. The Patriots were actually among the first teams to implement the 3-4 under Chuck Fairbanks in the 1970's. Bill Belichick's experience with the 3-4 stems from his upbringing as a coach under Parcells, and he has developed the 3-4 system carefully and thoughtfully during his time as Patriots head coach. It doesn't seem like he'd move away from the scheme based on one year's contract issues.

But it was also the consensus after the 2008 season - indeed, after the 2007 season - that the Patriots defense was in need of a major overhaul. Last year, especially, the flagging veterans and too-green kids did not combine for a pretty picture by the time all was said and done. And the trade of Mike Vrabel, seemingly out of the blue, shows there are no sacred cows where Bill Belichick is concerned. That's not to mention the sudden departure of Ellis Hobbs, as well as this year's choices in the draft -- you can always expect the unexpected from him.

At the very least, if we're wondering all this out in TV land, you can be sure the Patriots' opponents are doing similar speculating about what New England's next move will be. And I'm sure that's exactly how Belichick wants it.

Patriots finally pick an OLB

...and once again, I don't think anyone would've guessed this one. This is a position of need for the Patriots since Mike Vrabel was traded to Kansas City, but I don't think Tyrone McKenzie was high on anybody's draft boards. Clay Matthews and Larry English seemed to be the highest-rated players going into the draft.

But if there's been one clear message from Bill Belichick in this draft, it's that the players ranked in the higher rounds were overrated. He has obviously been marching to the beat of his own drummer, passing over, as Jamie put it, "a pass-rushing beast" in English to take McKenzie, whose scouting report is lukewarm.

The key may be the line "great footbal IQ". The Patriots are looking to replace not just a body but a leader in Mike Vrabel, although I think this pick shows the Patriots think someone further up the depth chart, like last year's draft pick Shawn Crable, will be stepping into that role.

Another surprise pick: WR Brandon Tate

Tate could be a classic example of value pushed down to later levels of the draft. Were it not for a knee injury (granted, a significant knee injury in which he tore both the ACL and MCL), the consensus among the talking heads on ESPN is that the speedy, versatile Tate would've been a first-round pick.

Still, this might feed the flames of frustration for some Patriots fans about this draft. Not only are the Patriots not in need of a WR - especially not compared to their needs at linebacker - Tate also flunked the "intelligence test" and tested positive for weed at the combine. ("Intelligence test" because everybody knows they're going to be tested at the combine.) Herm Edwards et al theorize Randy Moss will become his rabbi. I say you can't just assume that.

Once again, the Patriots throw a curve in this draft. That's all well and good, but getting a linebacker at some point would probably be nice.

Bill Belichick looks amused in ESPN interview

Bill Belichick was just interviewed by Chris Berman on ESPN, looking like the most uncomfortable person on the planet in a necktie, yet with an expression on his face at the same time like the cat who ate the canary. If I didn't know any better, I'd say he was smiling.

If the Patriots were going to take a tackle, I think most expected it to be one of the first-rounders like Andre Smith or Michael Oher. Instead, the Patriots selected Sebastion Vollmer with the 58th pick. Belichick said the 6' 8" OT from Houston is "a big man who works hard" and added that he has the versatility to play either left or right tackle

The need for the Patriots here is for the future...at least ostensibly.OL has also had a lot of injuries in the last few seasons, and it's probably good idea to have more depth in that area. So far, though, Patriots fans seem downright dumbfounded by this move, if the comments here by Brent and on Mike Reiss's blog are any indication.  (Reiss also points out Vollmer's nickname is "Sea Bass").

The first day of the draft has proven, once again, the eternal folly of draft predictions. The Patriots made no picks in the first round and are still without a drafted linebacker, which virtually everyone in Western civilization expected them to take in the first round.

We can only guess at what tomorrow will bring. And at the real reasons behind Bill Belichick's smirk.

Patriots deepen DB roster with new CB Darius Butler

This is not a position of need for the Patriots, but this drafting is another sign that Belichick & Co. are deadly serious about beefing up the defensive secondary this year - even if it's by adding another corner after signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden in free agency.

Some people might be concerned the Patriots have yet to draft a linebacker to replace Mike Vrabel, but to me, this is a great sign - the Patriots have just been relatively weak in the secondary for quite a while. (Maybe defensive backs in football are like relief pitchers in baseball - so in demand that good to great ones are hard to come by.)

I don't think Belichick has his depth chart planned out for the season at these positions; I think he's planning to let the players on the roster duke it out, and Butler adds a wild card to that mix. Training camp and the pre-season should be intriguing indeed.

Darius Butler is said to be a highly athletic player - Bill Belichick was quoted by Chris Berman on ESPN's draft show saying that Butler is "the most athletic corner I've ever worked out." The UConn alum also plays basketball and had an incredible 43" vertical jump at the combine.

His scouting report further states that Butler has great hands - great news as the joke about DBs is that they're wide receivers who couldn't catch. Might Butler become Peyton Manning's new pickoff nemesis a la Ty Law? We can only hope.

Career highlights on YouTube.

Patriots fans, say hello to your new safety - and goodbye to Rodney Harrison

After spending the first round wheeling and dealing their picks, the Patriots finally snapped up a player in this year's draft, and it's pretty safe to say the pick came as a surprise to most - at least, if the comments on my post about Patriots draft needs and safeties are any indication.

Patriots fans said they expected the Patriots to focus on linebacker and defensive end with their first-day picks. Chung, who stands 5' 11", was also called too small.

Well, so was Tedy Bruschi before the Patriots signed him, too. Ellis Hobbs is another good indication the Patriots are unafraid to go with shorter DBs.

As I wrote in my post on safeties, the Oregon defensive back was one of several very good safety prospects in this year's draft, but his stock was said to have gone up around the league following a solid performance in the combine (40 in 4.54 and 25 reps in the bench press).

I hate to use this word, but it would seem the "intangibles" are what's most attractive about Chung. Multiple scouting reports I've seen describe him as intense and aggressive. He also reportedly has strength in the zone defense, which the Patriots have emphasized recently.

I know the conventional wisdom is that the Patriots don't draft for need but for quality players. I also know that Tom Brady has been listed as questionable on the weekly injury report practically throughout his NFL career. Gamesmanship - and playing things close to the vest - are the Belichick trademark (witness the way this draft has gone!)

By picking at this position early, to me the Patriots are giving a solid indication that Rodney Harrison's days in the league are numbered if not over. It's not just that they picked a safety - they picked a tough, intense, aggressive safety with leadership potential. They wouldn't say so, but I think the Patriots had a very specific use for this young player in mind when they added him to the team.

He will have some huge shoes to fill. I don't know that anyone, especially not a rookie, will ever fully replace Rodney in our secondary.

Whoever Chung succeeds on the depth chart, he is, essentially, what we got in return for Vrabel and Cassel. What's the verdict, Pats fans?

P.S. You can see highlights from Chung's career at Oregon on YouTube.

Patriots by position: S

If the Patriots are going to use higher-round draft picks to select anything other than a linebacker or defensive end, it should be at this position. Youngster Brandon Meriweather is showing promise at this position, and James Sanders is a serviceable partner for him in the secondary. Tank Williams, who spent most of 2008 on IR along with many of his brethren in the secondary, could be a wild card here.

But until they find his replacement - not discounting the idea it may be Meriweather - they have a big, Rodney-Harrison-shaped hole in their roster.

It won't be quick or easy to replace Harrison's veteran leadership (this may be where Tank Williams comes in), but the Patriots can keep their eye out for someone who can at least replace his tough hits and aggressive attitude - James Sanders just ain't cuttin' it for me in that department, and neither is special-teamer Raymond Ventrone. I would love to see the Patriots pick up a hungry young draft pick at this position like Jerod Mayo.

Some safeties have been in the mix during the combine and pre-draft workouts for the Patriots. Patrick Chung of Oregon, William Moore of Missouri, and Louis Delmas of Western Michigan have gotten pre-draft workouts. Chung is said to be intense and competitive, and can also serve as a punt returner. Delmas played as a free safety and is said to be a hungry, aggressive young player with good leadership skills.

Also among the top safety prospects this year is Alabama's Rashad Johnson. Scouting reports on him are tantalizing; Patriots Football Weekly writer Erik Scalavino says Johnson "Reminds me of Brandon Meriweather with better hands."

Who knows what kind of gamesmanship it might mean coming from Belichick and Co., but from the mix of players that have been worked out, the impression seems to be the team would like to draft at this position around the second round. Moore, Johnson and Delmas are all expected to be available between the second and third rounds, and it's likely the Patriots will snap one of them up with their 34th pick.