Cursed To First - Sox and Pats forever.

Probing the mind of Belichick, cont'd

I wasn't disappointed by last night's PAA, whether it was the Belichick mic'd up stuff or all the other behind-the-scenes moments...

...like this shot of four out of the seven Patriots Pro Bowlers. A handsome bunch, eh? Now that Brett Keisel has announced he will be shearing his mighty face-mane for charity, Matt Light, especially, may be poised to take over the league's Most Viking-Like Appearance title. But, uh, Logan? We Need To Talk about that mustache...

Meanwhile, what I wouldn't give to have had THIS conversation mic'd up...

...and then there was The Big Man and the Sea - Vince Wilfork pondering the mysteries of life while deep-sea fishing off Honolulu.

But the main attraction, as previewed, was Belichick.

The 5 Stages of Manning Face

Before tonight's Wild Card playoff between the Patriots' two most hated rivals began, it seemed like most New England fans on Twitter were making some variation on the "asteroid" or "meteor" comment when asked to pick a winner ("I'm rooting for [insert preferred extraterrestrial object here] to hit the stadium."). If there'd been a way both of these teams could've lost, I believe that's what most Pats fans would've chosen.

Given the back and forth right down to the final seconds of this game tonight, you could say that in a way, that's what happened -- at alternating intervals in the final minutes of the fourth quarter, both teams spent time holding a lead, only to be crushingly disappointed. As long as someone had to win, for those of us who hate both teams with a visceral passion, the deciding moments really couldn't have unfolded in a much more satisfying way.

With less than a minute to go, Adam Vinatieri hit a 50-yard field goal that left me momentarily paralyzed by cognitive dissonance, to give Indy the 16-14 lead.

Then, somehow, the Jets were putting together a drive...and inexplicably, Indianapolis used one of its time outs during that last-minute Jets drive...and then Nick Folk, of all people, was sent out onto the big stage.

Folk is approximately the last player in the league I would want my team to be depending on to win a playoff game (now that Mike Vanderjagt is no longer with us). Even though earlier this season he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with the ball to save his life, in true Jets fashion, he has never lost his swagger!

And tonight, from 32 yards out and with 3 seconds left in the game, Folk split the uprights. You could actually hear his primal holler of "YUS!!" on TV the second it went through.

It's not like I'm happy for the bastid Jets. Of course not.

But there are two bits of good news in this for the Patriots and Patriots fans. First, this means the Patriots don't have to play the Ravens next week. Instead it will be the season's rubber match between the Jets and Patriots, which is not without its difficulties, but I still think Pats v. Ravens the worse matchup from a NE perspective.

Secondly, tonight gave us what may have been the most exquisite display of the proverbial Manning Face yet.

In fact, it wasn't just one Manning Face. It was actually a whole series.

The Official Patriots Fan's "Running up the Score" Rant

Let me just get this out of my system.

Once again, angst has been building up within the Patriots-related synapses of my brain, until I feel the need to at least plant a verbal stake in the ground on behalf of the apparent minority of NFL fans who feel the way I do about this.

I know I shouldn't let things like this get to me the way they sometimes do. There's that expression -- haters gonna hate. I also can't say I have an exactly spotless record when it comes to irrational hatred of and criticisms for other teams (Peyton Manning and the Colts being the prime example).

And yeah, there are a lot of ways in which I really can't defend Bill Belichick, in particular. I understand why people find him gruff, persnickety, sarcastic, pedantic, condescending and generally a dick, sometimes all in the same sentence. The man has obviously not built his professional success on his stellar social skills.

But I've long since had enough of Belichick's team, its owners, and associated fans, being the subject of plainly idiotic double standards and / or collective amnesia because of the widespread personal distaste for the head coach. And there are times, like this time, that all the understanding in the world that sometimes these things are meant to get a rise out of me, to stir the pot, to get the phone lines lighting up and the eyeballs glued to the TV screen, or at the very least are an irrational defense mechanism akin to my own vis a vis the Colts, still can't make me abide the continued insistence on reverting to the oversimplified pigeonhole the league has collectively created for the New England Patriots.

Patriots survive Colts, 31-28

There's the face we all know and love...

Now at 6-4, the Indianapolis Colts are an injury-riddled team having trouble filling some of the gaps. But that didn't stop them from giving the Patriots absolutely everything they could handle today before running out of clock, or from knocking on the door, with a chance to come back and win, in the very last seconds of the game.

There were three factors that ultimately saved the Patriots: an aggressive game early, a two-dimensional offense, and forcing turnovers. But there were also a few things to be worried about going forward, with the Patriots still tied atop the AFC East at 8-2 and facing one more matchup with their bitter rivals to the south before the season ends.

Patriots vs .Colts quick preview

Things to ponder during tailgate time...

Key for the Patriots today will be:

Continued strength from the O-line:  Toward the end of his interview with D&C this week, Tom Brady was funny in that slow-talkin' surfer-dude way he has sometimes, talking about Logan Mankins and his rage at Steelers defenders Mankins (and others on the O-line) felt were roughing up the QB. "If I was going to get in a fight, not that if I would do that, but Logan would be someone that I would want right next to me. You know, Logan, he doesn't care, he's gonna kick somebody's ass."

Mankins v. Steelers is, I have to say, Yosemite-Sam comical when seen without dialogue, in replay (briefly at about 0:32 here, and 0:37 here). His tussle with Troy Polamalu after Mankins felt Polamalu hit Brady and twisted his head around (clearly visible at 6:37 here) would become a bigger scuffle after the play between some of the Patriots' O-line and defenders.

But today, the role of Mankins, along with the rest of the offensive line, will be dead serious, in stopping the pass rush from two of the most feared defensive ends in the league, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Secondary Stamina: The Patriots defense generally held the line against the Steelers, although they were not always effective at keeping Ben Roethlisberger from making plays outside the pocket last week. And they remain, of course, young, and prone to making young mistakes.

So I worry about the matchup of Peyton Manning and his receiving corps, especially Reggie Wayne, against the Patriots' DBs (even if Manning has been a "horse of another color" recently). I really do.

Especially since the Colts' style of hurry-up offense can, if allowed to find a rhythm, make these matchups prolonged. Bill Belichick pointed this out on Patriots All Access (Great football show or greatest football show?) about how the Colts' offensive style can prevent a defense from making substitutions: "And then, you're on the goal line in your dime package, and you don't want to be, but there was no time...

The Bigger Picture: It's time for the Pats to get back on top; they're one-fer in their last 6 games against Indianapolis. I'm sure no one knows this better than the guys in the home locker room at Gillette right now.

For fans, the perennial "who's the better team" pot-stirring is appearing on the pregame shows and around the Web in advance of today's matchup. For me, there's still no question as to who's the team of the last decade, as well as who has always been the better team in this rivalry overall.

Right now, the question is whether or not that team can win today.

Patriots make their statements late and close

By the time the second half of this game opened, I had already begun composing my post for this blog in my head about how, exactly, the Colts had managed to beat the Patriots.It wasn't just that the Colts were ahead 13-7 as the third quarter began; they had also been outplaying the Patriots in most phases of the game in the first half.

This especially included the running game (identified in pregame prediction posts as one of the keys to the game) from Joseph Addai, who would finish with 112 of the team's 118 yards rushing. The Colts had a much more balanced attack than the Pats, achieving 10 of their first downs rushing and 9 of them passing; the Patriots achieved 6 rushing first downs and 14 on the pass.

Then there were the penalties, which had both me and my Dad reaching for things to huck at the TV screen throughout the game. It was an uncharacteristically mentally lax first half for the Patriots, including Tom Brady, who was picked off once and forced to punt entirely too often. The Patriots also finished the first half with a completely unheard of 5 penalties for 102 yards, to the Colts' single five-yard penalty.

We won, so this is going to seem less like sour grapes, and for that I'm glad, because it's just the truth that outside of lackluster execution from the Pats in a few cases, those numbers were racked up through absolutely atrocious officiating. For example, apparently the definition of "defensive pass interference" now includes being tackled by the wide receiver (Ellis Hobbs v. Reggie Wayne in the second quarter). By the third quarter, Tom Brady couldn't contain his frustration when Kevin Faulk was clearly interfered with on a passing route and it was not called. Randy Moss was grabbed in midair by a defensive back in the end zone in the fourth quarter...and it was ruled offensive pass interference.

I believe in the conventional football wisdom that you never win or lose a game through the officiating alone, but I will say it did not bolster my confidence that the calls weren't going in the Patriots' favor. Penalties wound up being a big advantage for the Colts in this game, regardless of outcome. Four of their first downs--they had 23 total, two more than the Patriots--came on penalties, and the Patriots conceded close to six times as many yards as the Colts to penalties, 146 to the Colts' 25.

Otherwise, the teams were evenly matched, making such a large penalty differential even more glaring. The Colts also had a slight advantage over the Patriots in some categories, from time of possession (30:14 to the Pats' 29:44) to total yards rushing (119 to 105) to total first downs (23 to the Pats' 21). In most other statistical measures, the Pats barely edged the Colts: 342 total net yards to 329; 237 passing yards to 218 (the Patriots most certainly did not stop the out route as Jamie had recommended).

What it finally came down to was situational execution. In other words--making the big plays. Tom Brady was intercepted twice, and Peyton Manning lost a fumble once. But it's when those turnovers occurred that turned out to make a bigger difference. The Colts would score go-ahead points on each of their possessions following Brady's interceptions, but it was at a more crucial point in the game that Manning's gaffe occurred--with less than three minutes to go in the game, behind by four points.

Here the relentless Patriots defense combined two delicate maneuvers that wrested the ball from Manning--first Jarvis Green chopped the ball out of Manning's hands, and then Roosevelt Colvin reached out for it as it flew through the air, juggling it for a few heart-stopping seconds before he got a good grip on it. But he did.

Meanwhile, look at Brady late in the game: two of his three touchdown passes came in the fourth quarter. His two longest passing plays of the game were the ones that set up those touchdowns--one a 55-yard bomb to Moss before the score that made it 20-17 and another 33-yard completion to Donte Stallworth before the go-ahead points were punched in.

The two scoring drives in the fourth quarter were among the longest of the game; the first drive was the longest single drive at 71 yards and the second was the third-longest at 51 yards (only the Pats' 62-yard first-quarter drive was above it). And yet while they were the longest in terms of net yards, they were among the shortest of the game in terms of time of possession: 1:43 for the first fourth-quarter drive and an unbelievable 43 seconds for the second one.

Another place where the Pats and Colts' numbers this game stand in contrast to one another is in the red zone. In three trips inside the 20, the Colts were 1/3, and also 1/3 with goal to go. The Patriots were 3/4 in the red zone and 2/2 with goal to go.

The picture that's emerging here is one of a Patriots team that waited for the waning moments of the game to strike on a tired defense and a quarterback not known for clutching up late (with last year's AFC championship game excluded). Within that, there's also the sense of a defensive unit that stiffened up late in drives and in the red zone to minimize the damage from the Colts' offense.

Suddenly, the "running up the score" mentality of stomping the gas hard late in the game that's been so lambasted is starting to look like a training tactic. Suddenly, the Pats' emphasis on driving through the red zone--on both offense and defense, regardless of the game situation--is looking like a key element of their success today. Suddenly, it might be time to question whether there was a method to Belichick's madness this season after all.

Madden Predicts Winner

Well, we're finally mere hours away from the most hyped regular season game of my 25 years of existance. The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots are meeting in Indy in what could determine who gets homefield advantage this postseason. While both quarterbacks are the marquee players in this rivalry, I believe there are 5 other keys to the game, besides our beloved Brady and the stat-padding Manning (hehe, had to throw that in).�I also look to Madden for my game prediction.

1. Runningbacks - My guess is that both teams want to keep the opposing offense off the field. In order to do so, they will each try and get their running game going. This is no easy task usually against these defenses (Indy has improved in run defense since last year), but with both geared up to stop the pass, holes may open up that the runningbacks MUST exploit. I feel the team with the best rushing attack will win the game. The Patriots need to take the mittens off and really start using Laurence Maroney. Why else draft him in the first round unless you expect him to step up for games like this?

2. STOP DALLAS CLARK - This tight end is the bane of my existence. In the AFC Championship Game, Manning repeatedly looked to his tight ends, namely Mr. Clark, against the tired New England linebacking core. I believe Dallas Clark was the main reason the Pats signed Adailius Thomas in the offseason, and it will be his job to either stop this guy from catching the ball or plant Manning on his backside.

3. Stop the Out-Route - Manning-to-Wayne on the out near the sideline is something the tandem do quite often. They will hit this pattern repeatedly if the Pats (Ellis Hobbs if Marvin Harrison plays and is occupied by Asante Samuel) allow it. In the playoffs, the Colts resembled the Patriots offense of old: much more of a dink-and-dunk with the occasional big play rather than going for big play after big play. And it worked. Stop the out. That's you Mr. Hobbs and Mr. Samuel.

4. Keep Brady Upright - The offensive line has been stellar giving Brady time this year to check down to his 2nd and 3rd options, or hit Moss for the big play. They must continue to give Brady time and contain Dwight Freeney. That's you Matt Light. If he has the time to make his reads and hit his check-downs, the Patriots win. Conversely...

5. Pressure, Pressure, Pressure - Watching old Pats/Colts games on NFL Network (I love you NFL Network!!), the Pats had the most success when they were able to rattle Manning and throw off his timing. They don't necessarily need to sack Peyton, just rush him to make quick decisions, which will hopefully lead to bad decisions. This is especially important early on in the game, as it affects Manning throughout the�rest of the game. New England's secondary is finally as good as it was in the glory years, in my opinion, and they should be able to hold up their coverage long enough as long as there's a good pass rush.

Finally, my prediction for the�Game of the Year (until the playoffs). In order to be as accurate as possible,�I did what any responsible sports prognosticator would do: consult Madden. No, not John Madden, the jolly, stuttering announcer we all love to hear go�ga-ga over Brett Favre. But his electronic alter ego, Madden Football 2007. At the final whistle, the Patriots were victorious, winning 49-0. Brady threw for about 300 yards and 3 TDs, 2 to Wes Welker and 1 to Ben Watson, back from an ankle injury. Peyton Manning was picked twice, both of which were returned for TDs by Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison. Laurence Maroney ran for 2 TDs.

Kidding aside, I obviously do not expect the game to resemble anything close to that (but wouldn't that�be great Pats fans?). I feel it will be a shootout, with the Pats coming through in the end. I'm wishy washy on picking the Pats, but I just can't pick against them here.

Final Score: Pats 38, Colts 34

Tom Brady will continue his streak of throwing at least 3 TD passes..

Laurence Maroney rushes for over 100 yards (finally) and one score.

Colts will lead 34-31 in the 4th quarter, Belichick goes for a TD on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal for the tie and is successful, sealing a win.

Nothing left but the shouting: the NFL's greatest rivalry kicks off

The office of the Commissioner must be thanking its lucky stars for the Colts and the Patriots right now. In a league dominated by parity, the Colts and Pats have both found a way to rise above the competition and face off against one another at a higher level. As a combination, the Colts and Patriots are the indisputably the best the NFL has to offer.

The issue for me, however, has always been the storyline. Abstractly, objectively, it's possible to just sit back and appreciate the games the Colts and Pats have put on as technically elite football. But these games don't happen in a vacuum, and in a league as central to the national spotlight right now as the NFL, the social and cultural issues that surround the games can become as important as the play on the field. And sometimes, as we've seen in the Patriots' case, they can become more important.

A history of the rivalry�

The Patriots began their dynasty era as decided underdogs, heavily predicted to lose in their Super Bowl appearance against the Rams in 2001. When they upset the Rams, it was looked upon as a fluke, and the Patriots didn't do much to dissuade that argument with a relatively lackluster season in 2002.

When the Patriots returned to the postseason, and earned another ring in 2003, the predominant storyline was one of debate about whether or not they were for real. There was also a subset of endless arguments, from the national press to the local talk shows, about whether or not Tom Brady was truly a standout quarterback or if it was "the system".

I vividly remember the playoff game the Patriots played against the Colts that year. The Colts, like the Rams, were an offensive juggernaut that was heavily favored. Like the Rams, they were beaten by the Patriots, but before the game, not only were the national pundits boldly predicting Colts dominance, but so were the Colts themselves. This was the year of the infamous "they better start making our rings now" comment.

This was the year I began to dislike the Colts.

Especially since, in every team comparison, Peyton Manning was compared favorably to Brady in every dimension. I began to feel, however irrationally, that Peyton Manning was robbing Tom Brady of rightful credit.

I began to dislike Peyton Manning.

In 2004, the Patriots and Colts once again faced off, this time in the divisional round of the playoffs, and once again, the Colts were favored to win. Once again, their gaudy offense was cited as the trump card. Also, the dirty, cheating Patriots defensive backs were no longer going to be allowed to mug the poor, defenseless Colts wide receivers thanks to Bill Polian's spearhead of the 5 yard chuck rule in the 2003-2004 off-season.

Oh, yes. The dirty, evil Patriots storyline was alive and well even then.

Even though the Colts changed the rules, the Patriots still beat them that year. They went on to upset the Steelers in similar fashion, and with their third ring, they began to earn praise from the broadcast booth.

The 2006 AFC Championship Game: the storyline shifts

But lo and behold, the next time the Patriots and Colts faced each other in the postseason, last year's AFC Championship Game, the Colts were once again the favorites, despite the fact that Peyton Manning had spent the last four years choking in every big game he played.

When Indy finally managed to pull it out in the latter half of the game, I did expect their homers in the booth to be celebrating. But the storyline that emerged still startled me.

After five years of predicted Colts dominance, the Colts finally got a chance to face the Patriots indoors, at home, against a Patriots squad that some felt had no business even being in the game in the first place, once again with the force of the national predictions behind them, and finally, in the game's final minutes, they managed to beat us by four points.

Suddenly, the Colts were America's Team and their defeat of the Patriots was an upset for the ages. I even heard the Colts compared to the Red Sox and the Patriots to the Yankees, an analogy that even now threatens to make my head explode.

From the side of admitted Patriots bias, I thought that rather than recast the Colts as a scrappy, plucky bunch of underdogs fighting the good fight against the Evil Empire, the analysis very well could have been (and probably should have been) that a repeatedly favored, talent-loaded team finally managed to pull out their long-predicted win. Making them not the underdog, but chronic underachievers.

But it didn't happen. Sort of like how Boston Red Sox fans, 86 years without a championship, suffered under the media-created Curse of the Bambino, while the Chicago White Sox went even longer without a championship, and never had a similar mythical storyline applied to them. It's anybody's guess how these decisions are made.

Why?

It's�clear that Bill Belichick, to the rest of the nation, is an unlikable character. Like the dirty, evil Patriots meme, this is not an unprecedented concept: former Globe football columnist Ron Borges clearly had an ongoing personality conflict with Belichick throughout the first three Super Bowl seasons, even going so far as to make ridiculous predictions about the team simply because they were negative. Something was up there behind the scenes--that much became patently obvious.

But to most football fans in Boston, Ron Borges was a laughingstock. To a football audience across the country, the talking heads on CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN are where they get their information about teams. And it seems that here, the way the Patriots and Bill Belichick come across, the way they deal with the press, has swung the storylines in their opponents' favor.

Now we come to 2007. And the "underdog" storyline that so infuriated me last year has been given new life by Camera-Gate and the ridiculous gnitpicking of late about running up the score. The storyline that was applied to the Patriots as a model franchise of choirboys has been amended, and the upcoming battle with the Colts is now being cast, straight-facedly, as a battle of Good vs. Evil. And I'm sure you can guess who's on the "evil" side.

I will say this: the team's image and press relations are a part of Bill Belichick's job. They are also a part of his job he obviously doesn't care about, and now his team's image is suffering the consequences. If he's to blame for anything in this situation, it's that.

But the rest? The Patriots as the Evil Empire and the Colts as lovable underdogs? Forget about Belichick and whether or not he's a jerk. Why does Tom Brady not warrant some respect? He's on pace to smash the single-season touchdown record this year, something that was covered�with Peyton Manning in 2004 as if he was discovering the cure for cancer, but Brady's running up the score. Peyton Manning was the best thing since sliced bread when he was breaking records, but this year, Bill Cowher feels justified in intimating that someone is going to deliberately hurt Tom Brady if this whole, you know, winning thing keeps up.

This has led me to further,�perhaps irrational resentment (okay, more like deep-seated hatred) of the Colts. But objectively, the Colts, like the Pats, have found a way to beat a system that's working to keep everybody at .500. Unlike in baseball, football teams work with a salary cap; neither the Colts or Patriots has been given any resource not available to the rest of the teams in the NFL. Both have simply made excellent personnel decisions, whether coaches or players, and both have instituted intelligently designed systems that let them rise above the rest of the fray.

So how come only one of them gets credit?

Showdown in Indy--the Pats fan perspective�

Call me naive, but I live in a world where if someone beats you, you try to improve. You don't "go Gilooly" as I've heard it put.

I think Bill Belichick lives in that world too. I think he is devoted to football for football's sake. His interpersonal skills may leave something to be desired, but to retreat from improvement and unflagging effort to improve at any point, for any reason, goes against absolutely everything that the Patriots dynasty has been built upon. To suggest that such a retreat should happen is to insult the very real work and dedication every player on the Patriots roster has put in to be better than their opponent, by acting like it's something they've just been handed.

For whatever reason, that's exactly what's happening. And so we find ourselves facing off against our rivals in what should be a celebration of football at its highest echelons. But rather than appreciate what we're seeing, people would rather focus on�cults of personality and whether or not everybody gets a cookie.

The thing Patriots fans have to fall back on, as demands we apologize for our team's success continue, is the fact that every year so far, when the dust settled, the better team has been left standing, and great football has been played. All the yammering in the pregame show doesn't change what happens after kickoff.

But I have to say, this year, more than any other, I can't wait until that clock starts ticking, and we can focus on what's real.

P.S. I want to also point out that it appears at least one member of the press sees things as I do: Eric Wilbur in this must-read piece on Boston.com.

If you're interested in even further Colts-Pats recommended reading, I'm aggregating choice articles and posts�over here.